Fleet and mobility leaders heading into 2026 are navigating what industry veteran Chris Brown calls "permanent turbulence" — a state where disruption (tariffs, AI adoption, supply chain volatility) is no longer a temporary phase but the new operating baseline. On this episode of The Keys, Cardata's Lee Adam spoke with Brown about the biggest forces reshaping fleet strategy for 2026, including AI's real (and limited) role in fleet operations, the risk of accepting vehicle pricing without tariff clarity, and why fleet leaders need to actively build visibility and internal advocacy rather than operating as a background cost center.

"Permanent Turbulence": Why Disruption Is the New Normal

Brown's central framing for 2026 planning is that fleet operators should stop expecting a return to stability. Looking back over the last two decades, he traces a pattern of disruption that never fully resolves before the next one begins: the 2008 financial crisis, a temporary return to calm, the pandemic, supply chain breakdowns, labor shortages, price hikes, and now tariffs.

His conclusion: fleets need to build systems and planning around permanent turbulence, not around the assumption that "normal" is coming back.

Flexibility Over Lean Efficiency

For years, "lean" operating principles — single-sourcing OEMs for volume incentives, standardizing upfits, minimizing redundancy — were the default fleet strategy. Brown argues this approach breaks down precisely when it's tested: a single OEM recall or supply disruption can throw an entire fleet off balance.

His recommendation for 2026: build flexibility into fleet strategy, even at added cost, including:

• Diversifying across multiple OEMs and upfit paths
• Maintaining spare assets or redundancy where it matters most
• Strengthening supplier relationships proactively, not just when a crisis hits
• Considering vehicle reimbursement programs as an operational hedge that keeps teams mobile even when vehicle supply or delivery timelines are disrupted

Brown also emphasizes that this shift requires executive alignment — leaders need to understand upfront that resilience-focused planning may mean a less "lean" budget, and that tradeoff needs to be communicated clearly rather than justified after a disruption occurs.

AI in Fleet: Real Value, But Not a Silver Bullet

AI is a defining theme for 2026, but Brown pushes back on treating it as a cure-all. He points to back-office and "unsexy plumbing" use cases — like a recent Merchants Fleet and Cognizant partnership focused on automating repair authorization, billing, and remarketing cycle efficiencies — as where AI is delivering the most practical value today.

His caution for fleet leaders: AI can meaningfully reduce administrative workload, but it can't replace human judgment or in-person elements of fleet operations — particularly around driver safety. Training completion rates and automated alerts don't substitute for direct human interaction between fleet managers and drivers, which remains essential to reinforcing safe driving behavior.

Practical starting questions Brown suggests fleet managers ask themselves:

• Where am I spending time manually reviewing documents or running exports that a tool could handle instead?
• What maintenance schedules or alerts could be automated to free up my time?
• Given that most fleet budgets aren't growing, how can AI-driven efficiency close that gap without adding headcount?

He also flags a real tension for team structure: fleet departments that once needed a team of four to six may increasingly be expected to operate with two, as AI absorbs administrative workload — a shift fleet managers need to get ahead of rather than be surprised by.

Fleet's Visibility Problem: Why Fleet Managers Need to Advocate Internally

One of Brown's most direct pieces of advice: fleet is too often treated as a background cost center rather than a strategic function, and fleet managers need to actively change that perception. His recommendations:

• Proactively surface wins in terms senior leadership cares about — cost savings, emissions reductions, cycle time improvements — rather than assuming results speak for themselves
• Flag risks and challenges before they become crises. Brown is blunt: if senior management doesn't understand the risks fleet is managing, and something goes wrong, the fleet team gets blamed regardless of whether they raised the issue beforehand
• Build the internal business case for fleet as a strategic pillar, not a sunk operational cost — which requires ongoing communication with finance, procurement, and HR, not a one-time pitch

This mirrors a broader theme in mobility and vehicle reimbursement program management: cross-functional alignment early in the process reduces friction when disruption or change eventually hits.

Green Flags and Red Flags for 2026

Brown outlined specific indicators fleet leaders should watch heading into next year:

Positive signs (green flags):

• Vehicle supply allocation and availability look stable for 2026, outside of some hybrid model constraints
• Used vehicle resale values and depreciation trends appear likely to remain stable, supporting predictable total cost of ownership
• More fleet managers are diversifying their OEM base (including broader adoption of brands like Hyundai, Kia, Mazda, and Nissan) — a resilience-positive trend even if it adds complexity

Risk signs (red flags):

• Tariff-driven pricing uncertainty. Some fleet managers are accepting vehicle orders without final pricing, as OEMs have so far absorbed tariff costs rather than passing them through. Brown expects this to shift, and fleet managers should watch for cost transfer as tariffs evolve.
• Vendor and OEM rep turnover disrupting institutional knowledge. When OEM or vendor contacts change, critical account knowledge doesn't always transfer smoothly, creating friction fleet managers should plan for.
• Cycle time volatility. A single part shortage can stretch a typical 6–8 week vehicle cycle out to 30 weeks, even amid otherwise stable supply conditions.

Don't Wait for Your Contract to Expire to Talk to Vendors

Brown makes a point of encouraging fleet managers to treat vendor relationships as an ongoing source of market intelligence, not just a transactional relationship activated near contract renewal. Asking vendors for benchmark reports and market context — even mid-contract — helps fleet managers stay ahead of shifts rather than being surprised by them, and builds a stronger bench of potential partners over time.

FAQ: 2026 Fleet Strategy and Mobility Planning

What does "permanent turbulence" mean for fleet management?It refers to the idea that disruption — from tariffs to supply chain shocks to technology shifts — is now a constant condition rather than a temporary phase, and fleet strategy should be built around ongoing volatility rather than an expectation of returning to stability.

Is AI going to replace fleet management teams?Not entirely, according to Brown. AI is most effective at automating back-office tasks like billing, repair authorization, and remarketing workflows. However, fleet operations remain fundamentally physical and in-person, and human interaction — particularly around driver safety — can't be fully replaced by automated systems.

Should fleets prioritize lean efficiency or flexibility in 2026?Brown argues that flexibility — diversified OEMs, redundant supply paths, and strategic reserves — is increasingly more valuable than pure lean efficiency, even though it may cost more upfront, because it hedges against the kind of disruptions that have become common.

How can fleet managers get more support from senior leadership?By proactively communicating both successes (cost savings, efficiency gains) and risks in terms that resonate with the broader business, rather than assuming fleet's value is self-evident. Building relationships with finance, procurement, and HR early helps fleet get treated as a strategic function rather than an overhead cost.

What should fleet managers watch for regarding tariffs in 2026?Many OEMs have so far absorbed tariff-related costs rather than passing them on to fleets, but Brown expects this to shift as tariffs persist. Fleet managers accepting vehicle orders without finalized pricing should treat that as a risk to monitor closely.

Considering how vehicle reimbursement programs can add flexibility and resilience to your mobility strategy heading into 2026? Reach out to Cardata to learn more.

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